سناریونگاری آینده ورزش ایران در شرایط بحران و جنگ

Adopting an applied-developmental orientation within the framework of strategic foresight, this study examines plausible futures of Iran’s sport industry under conditions of persistent security uncertainty and the potential escalation of wartime crisis. Methodologically, the study is Mixed-methods and exploratory. The futures were designed using Peter Schwartz’s scenario planning approach based on the Global Business Network method. Data were collected through documentary review and semi-structured interviews with experts and key stakeholders, including senior sport administrators, federation, league, and club managers, managers of sport venues and facilities, security officials responsible for sport events and competitions, crisis management specialists, experts in passive and active defense, and academic faculty members. Purposive sampling was employed; 20 initial categories were identified, and theoretical saturation was achieved at the thirtieth interview.

The findings indicate that two critical uncertainties—namely the intensity of economic sanctions and the degree of security instability in West Asia—play the most decisive role in shaping the future scenarios of Iran’s sport industry. In addition, proxy wars, sabotage, targeted assassinations, direct military threats, cyber warfare, constraints on sport diplomacy, and reduced hosting opportunities were identified as reinforcing drivers. The results further suggest that, under high-tension scenarios, the sport industry is likely to face revenue compression, rising costs and supply disruptions, declining hosting opportunities and international engagement, and heightened digital and cyber vulnerability. Moreover, the absence of a coherent security-strategic perspective and the lack of clearly defined security scenarios intensify the institutional vulnerability of the sport industry.

The study concludes that, in wartime crisis conditions, the future of Iran’s sport industry is shaped less by ordinary development trajectories than by governance capacity to manage threats, strengthen financial and digital resilience, design security-oriented scenarios, and establish early warning mechanisms. Accordingly, the scenarios developed in this study can provide a foundation for forward-looking decision-making and for enhancing the resilience of Iran’s sport industry in the face of security and wartime crises.