تبیین سناریوهای آینده ورزش کشتی کشور در افق 1414

The aim of the present study is to study the future of Iranian wrestling and identify the key drivers affecting it in order to develop practical strategies to achieve a desirable future. This research seeks to answer the question of what factors shape the future of wrestling and how to best prepare for that future. This research was designed with a mixed approach (qualitative and futures research). In the first step, using documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews with 22 elites and experts in the field of wrestling, 17 key components affecting the future of this sport were identified. In the second step, using the cross-effects analysis method and the MiqMaq software, the complex relationships between the components were evaluated and it was determined that "stability and meritocracy of management", "financial independence from the government budget" and "integrated talent acquisition system" act as the most key drivers. Based on the two most influential and uncertain drivers, namely “management status” and “financial status”, four possible scenarios for the 1414 horizon were developed and described: the desirable scenario of “Renaissance and Authority”, the scenario of “Elite Effort”, the critical scenario of “Age of Decline” and the contradictory scenario of “Golden Cage”. Analyzing the consequences of each scenario led to the development of three resilient strategies that are effective in all possible futures: 1) institutionalization of meritocracy and structural reforms in management, 2) diversification of income sources and development of professional marketing and 3) establishment and consolidation of a national talent search system. The final findings emphasize that the future of wrestling is not inevitable, but rather the product of today’s decisions. This research provides a strategic roadmap that allows policymakers to actively shape the desired future by monitoring key indicators.