آینده‌نگاری نظام سیاست‌گذاری ورزش عراق: تحلیلی بر نیروهای پیشران و سناریوهای آینده حکمرانی

The aim of the present study is to foreshadow the Iraqi sports policy-making system and identify the driving forces and possible scenarios for the future of sports governance in this country. This research is of an applied type and was conducted with a qualitative futures research approach. The research data was collected through a study of documents and semi-structured interviews with 17 experts in the field of Iraqi sports management and policy-making, who were selected purposefully and using the snowball method. The data was coded and analyzed using the content analysis method. Then, the identified driving forces were evaluated based on two criteria: importance and uncertainty, and using the Schwartz scenario-building method, critical uncertainties were extracted and a 2×2 scenario matrix was drawn to formulate future scenarios for Iraqi sports governance. The research results led to the identification of a set of driving forces in political-governance, economic-financial, managerial, socio-cultural, legal-structural, and international dimensions. Among these factors, three key drivers, including the country's political-security stability, the economic situation and public budget, and the level of the government's political will to prioritize sports, were identified as the most important strategic uncertainties. Based on these uncertainties, four scenarios for the future of Iraqi sports governance were developed, including "developmental stability," "suspended capacities," "minimum survival and resilience," and "sports decline," each of which represents different paths for the evolution of the sports policymaking system in Iraq. The research findings show that the future of Iraqi sports governance is strongly influenced by political conditions and the level of will of policymakers to invest in and institutional reforms in the field of sports. Using the scenarios presented can help policymakers, sports managers, and government institutions design flexible strategies, reduce policy risks, and plan long-term for the sustainable development of sports in Iraq.